Translation:He probably won't come.
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No to your first question, and yes to your second.
Based on the context, I think "不会" should be interpreted as "won't" rather than "can't" (or the future version of "can't", "won't be able to"). It doesn't seem to me that the sentence implies that there's anything preventing him.
Here "能" would be better for "can't" (or "won't be able to", depending on context).
That sounds like he will never come. The sentence here seems to suggest that today, this time, he won't come.