probably is like antagligen or nog in Swedish. If you say maybe or kanske, you're just saying that you are open to the possibility.
If you say probably or antagligen, you think that it is more likely than not.
Not related specifically to this example: I've heard a number of Swedish speakers use kanske and måske basically interchangeably. Is this only a Skåne thing; if I went to Luleå and said måske would they look at me funny? Or is there a nuance that I'm missing?